Media buyers may find the rest of the 2010 election year one of the most unpredictable they have seen in many years, due to the volatility and uncertainties surrounding the purchase of political advertising.  

Political candidates and special interest groups spent a record $3 billion ($100 million in new media) on advertising in 2008, an open seat presidential election year. Such elections traditionally set the high watermark for political advertising purchases with “off year” elections totaling smaller amounts. This year, however, analysts are uncertain just how high media expenditures may go because of two factors that have significantly changed the political advertising landscape:

1. The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling opening the advocacy airwaves to corporations, unions and special interest groups and allowing them to advertise right up until election day
2. The unprecedented number of hotly contested House and Senate races.

Moreover, the increase in open seats without an incumbent has also led to a surprising number of contested primary races.Thus, spending generally purchased in the fall, following the Labor Day election kick-off, could begin much earlier in some states and be spread across the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters—even into the beginning of the 4^th quarter.

Who’s Running

All 435 seats in the U. S. House of Representatives and 36 seats in the U. S. Senate (three more than the normal one-third) will be contested in 2010. Voters will also be making decisions in 37 gubernatorial races, a much larger number than normal.  

Several Washington prognosticators are already comparing the 2010 election to the party change election of 1994, when a Republican wave swept through the electorate resulting in changes in control of both houses of Congress. Media spending in such “wave” elections is traditionally higher than normal.   

Who’s Advertising

The new rules that allow outside groups to not only spend corporate funds for issue ads but to do so right up until election day, will be even more significant in a year in which health care and financial reform, immigration, gay marriage and other social issues are prime points of debate.     

Patterns of Spending

As is typical of all elections that are broken down by state and districts, there will be wide variations in the amount of media purchased in specific states and regions. Competitive races where both parties have a realistic chance to win will draw the largest media buys.

Media buyers and clients will want to factor this uneven ad demand into their budget plans in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarter.

Markets Most Likely Affected by 2010 Elections

A number of states hit the trifecta with competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races. Among these are the following states that will likely have the heaviest, and most expensive, media focus in 2010:

• Arizona
• Arkansas                                 
• California
• Colorado                                 
• Connecticut
• Florida                                    
• Illinois
• Iowa                                       
• Nevada
• New York                               
• Ohio
• Oregon                                    
• Pennsylvania
• South Carolina

Other states with highly competitive statewide Senate races include:

• Delaware                                 
• Georgia
• Indiana                                    
• Louisiana
• Washington

Of the 40-50 hotly contested races for the House of Representatives, advertising will likely be focused on these larger metropolitan markets: 

• Miami and South Florida
• Little Rock, Arkansas
• Honolulu
• Providence, Rhode Island
• Knoxville and Chattanooga
• Charleston, South Carolina
• Indianapolis
• Sacramento
• New Orleans
• Philadelphia                                         
• Phoenix

For more information about any of the political races of 2010 and their media implications, contact Linda Dove, 4A’s Washington office, ldove@aaaa.org.